Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 20 2022 22:01:05

AWUS01 KWNH 202201
FFGMPD
FLZ000-210200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1127
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM EST Sun Nov 20 2022

Areas affected...southeastern Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 202158Z - 210200Z

Summary...Scattered, slow-moving convection continues to pose a
flash flood risk along/near the I-95 corridor for at least a few
more hours (through 02Z or so).

Discussion...Strong low-level confluence continues to foster a
band of deep convection generally parallel to the I-95 corridor
from near Fort Lauderdale to near Miami currently.  This
convective band has managed to organize despite marginal buoyancy
profiles and little in the way of lightning.  However, substantial
low-level flow (around 20-30 kts between 1000-850mb) continues to
impinge on a nearly stationary boundary in an environment
characterized by nearly 2 inch PW values.  The high moisture
content and slow cell movement is contributing to efficient
rainfall processes, with estimated rain rates peaking at 2
inches/hr prompting moderate MRMS FLASH responses that are likely
tied to impervious/urbanized ground conditions.

The ongoing scenario for flash flooding should change little over
the next 3-5 hours. SPC Mesoanalyses/RAP indicate only a
slow/gradual decrease in deep layer convergence along the I-95
corridor during that time frame, with the stationary low-level
boundary remaining in place.  The overall scenario is not being
handled by the CAMs very well.  General thoughts are that
convection will persist for the next 2-4 hours while mass fields
support maximized convergence.  Rainfall totals exceeding 3 inches
cannot be ruled out in this regime.  The area will be reassessed
for flash flood potential again in the 7-8p/00-01Z timeframe.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8fi7OHVRj0m0vuTHPeAD7n5QpMj0mvl7svcyfZwWvw2HIhwldUvxMP_O48laPwqCiQK-=
mpWrg4vQQEE5ZdKhWaq95qw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   26968021 26737975 25647992 25188037 25488087=20
            26768053=20

=3D =3D =3D
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