Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 20 2022 17:18:31

ACUS02 KWNS 201718
SWODY2
SPC AC 201716

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2022

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A positively tilted, southern-stream shortwave trough will develop
eastward Monday from the southern Plains to the lower MS Valley and
Southeast. Surface high pressure extending from TX to the East Coast
will inhibit the inland return of low-level moisture along much of
the Gulf Coast. Accordingly, the lack of appreciable instability is
expected to limit thunderstorm potential over a large majority of
the CONUS, with one exception.

Rich low-level moisture should return slowly northward across the FL
Peninsula through the period. Even though mid-level lapse rates will
remain poor, modest heating of this moist low-level airmass should
encourage the development of weak instability by Monday afternoon,
particularly over south FL where low 70s surface dewpoints are
forecast. Isolated thunderstorms capable of producing occasional
lighting flashes may preferentially form along the Atlantic Coast
sea breeze given weak easterly low-level flow. Deep-layer shear is
expected to remain modest over the surface warm sector, which
coupled with the poor lapse rates should limit updraft organization
and intensity.

...Gleason.. 11/20/2022

$$

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