Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 20 2022 12:44:28

ACUS01 KWNS 201244
SWODY1
SPC AC 201242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2022

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....Discussion...
Thunderstorm potential will remain limited across much of the CONUS
through the period outside of three confined areas.

First, sporadic lightning flashes will remain possible with a
pronounced lake-effect snow band in the Lake Ontario vicinity
through this afternoon. For additional short-term information
concerning the heavy snow threat, please see MCD 1968.

Ongoing scattered showers across far southeast FL to the Keys within
a low-level confluent regime along the coast may persist into early
afternoon. High PW values of 2-2.25 inches but poor tropospheric
lapse rates of 5-5.5 C/km per 12Z Miami and Key West soundings, in
conjunction with weak large-scale ascent, suggest thunderstorm
probabilities will remain low.

Finally, a weak lower-level warm theta-e advection regime should
continue through early Monday, downstream of a minor positive-tilt
shortwave trough over the Southwest. Scant buoyancy from parcels
rooted around 700 mb, as sampled by the 12Z Del Rio sounding, may be
adequate for isolated thunderstorms, mainly tonight over a portion
of south-central TX.

...Grams.. 11/20/2022

$$

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