Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 20 2022 09:47:26

ACUS48 KWNS 200947
SWOD48
SPC AC 200945

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2022

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium range guidance is not in as good agreement compared to
yesterday regarding the evolution of a potentially potent upper
trough Days 4-6/Wed-Fri. Some guidance has trended toward developing
a cutoff upper low, stunting eastward development, while other
guidance remains more progressive with a neutral to positively
tilted upper trough shifting across the eastern half of the CONUS
through Friday. Given lack of consistency, uncertainty is higher
than average at this forecast range. Despite model disparity, severe
potential appears limited by poor Gulf return flow precluding
favorable boundary-layer moisture and instability. Trends will
continue to be monitored for any increasing severe potential through
Day 6/Fri from the mid/lower MS Valley eastward, but probability for
severe thunderstorms is low at this time. By the end of the period,
most guidance suggests that a broad upper ridge will develop in the
wake of the eastern upper low/trough and severe potential will be
low through next weekend.

...Leitman.. 11/20/2022

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