Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 20 2022 08:22:53

FOUS30 KWBC 200822
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 AM EST Sun Nov 20 2022

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 20 2022 - 12Z Mon Nov 21 2022

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann



Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 21 2022 - 12Z Tue Nov 22 2022

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE
URBANIZED CORRIDOR ALONG THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

There has been a shift in the numerical guidance to focus the
better QPF a bit northward of the previous runs.  As a result,
trimmed some of the southern-most extent of the on-going Marginal
Risk area as yesterday's Day 3 ERO moves into today's Day 2 ERO.=20
The overall pattern still shows an area of precipitable water
values approaching 2 inches making their way northward from the
Florida Strait on Monday morning that progresses northward during
the late morning and afternoon so convection capable of producing
some localized downpours remains a possibility. The expectation is
that convection that develops across the southern portion of the
Marginal Risk area will be more driven by instabiliy while the
support of upper level jet will start to aid the deep layer lift
farther north.  Either way.....there could be sufficiently high
rainfall rates to be problematic in the urban areas.

Bann


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_Gtm3Dn_ugEFPE_KH53_j3DhyppkfE1lx2-Wa-1i_PbC=
TQIPuy5SuK1FsFr6rA56M6aKatQCwmDtkj_9Yw6CaiI9rCk$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_Gtm3Dn_ugEFPE_KH53_j3DhyppkfE1lx2-Wa-1i_PbC=
TQIPuy5SuK1FsFr6rA56M6aKatQCwmDtkj_9Yw6COPd5pIo$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_Gtm3Dn_ugEFPE_KH53_j3DhyppkfE1lx2-Wa-1i_PbC=
TQIPuy5SuK1FsFr6rA56M6aKatQCwmDtkj_9Yw6CkjBJIck$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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