Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 20 2022 00:12:13

FOUS30 KWBC 200012
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
710 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2022

Day 1
Valid 01Z Sun Nov 20 2022 - 12Z Sun Nov 20 2022

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley
=20
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 20 2022 - 12Z Mon Nov 21 2022

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell

Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 21 2022 - 12Z Tue Nov 22 2022

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE
URBANIZED CORRIDOR IN SOUTH FLORIDA...

21Z update... The latest guidance is still suggesting a
concentration of showers and thunderstorms near the coastline that
could yield moderate to high rainfall rates that may become
problematic in the urban areas. A Marginal Risk was already in
place for portions of the eastern coast of the peninsula southward
to Miami and still reflects the latest trends. Therefore, no
changes were needed at this time.

Campbell

Showers and thunderstorms capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall rates should become more numerous during the day on
Monday given the presence of a quasi-stationary front in the area
and the feed of moisture by deep-layer and persistent (albeit
modest) southeasterly flow.  The latest NCEP model runs are
consistently showing precipitable water values increasing to 2
inches over the Florida Strait by 12Z Monday morning...which
expands in lifts northward across the southern Florida peninsula
during the morning as the front starts to move northward. Those
environmental conditions could result in convection being able to
produce localized downpours and isolated 1+ inch per hour rainfall
rates. The concern for excessive rainfall was primarily for
urbanized areas along the east coast of the Florida
peninsula...including a portion of the Space Coast southward to
Miami...where impervious surfaces could result in flooding from
run-off problems or areas of poor drainage.

Bann



Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6KamhMZZ0HdUcpwpZ9Js4m3KqewP2rkE3e_7s5QDDekH=
_bnMXwk6z4qImIteYLDDUX8LKTU745-mFVtEugVq-Nt2SaE$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6KamhMZZ0HdUcpwpZ9Js4m3KqewP2rkE3e_7s5QDDekH=
_bnMXwk6z4qImIteYLDDUX8LKTU745-mFVtEugVqPrTZFGw$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6KamhMZZ0HdUcpwpZ9Js4m3KqewP2rkE3e_7s5QDDekH=
_bnMXwk6z4qImIteYLDDUX8LKTU745-mFVtEugVqp-m2-sI$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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