Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 19 2022 09:42:45

ACUS48 KWNS 190942
SWOD48
SPC AC 190940

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CST Sat Nov 19 2022

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium range guidance has become more consistent, both run-to-run
and cross-model, over the past day. Low-amplitude westerly flow is
expected through at least the first half of Day 5/Wed before a
stronger trough begins to dig across the Plains Wednesday evening,
shifting east toward the central U.S. on Day 6/Thu. Surface high
pressure east of the Mississippi through Day 5/Wed will keep Gulf
moisture offshore, limiting thunderstorm potential.

As the upper trough deepens and moves toward the Mississippi River
on Thursday, developing surface low pressure over the
Mid-Mississippi Valley should allow for modest southerly flow to
bring some moisture northward into parts of the central Gulf coast
states, and perhaps as far north as the Mid-South. Typically this
pattern would support some increasing potential for severe
thunderstorms across the South. However, at this time guidance
suggest Gulf moisture return ahead of a sharp and quickly surging
cold front may not be sufficient for severe storms. Trends will
continue to be monitored for possible increase in severe potential
toward the end of the week, but current deterministic, ensemble, and
machine learning guidance suggest the chance of severe storms at
this time is low.

...Leitman.. 11/19/2022

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