Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1964
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 19 2022 02:42:15

ACUS11 KWNS 190242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190241=20
NYZ000-190845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1964
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0841 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022

Areas affected...portions of far western New York

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 190241Z - 190845Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow is expected to continue with the primary snow
band off of Lake Ontario through at least early tonight. Snowfall
rates may exceed 2 inches/hr at times, with near-zero visibility and
dangerous travel conditions likely.

DISCUSSION...While deep-layer flow has become more zonal with the
passage of a surface lee trough, roughly unidirectional vertical
wind profiles remain oriented along a long axis of Lake Ontario.
This deep-layer flow paralleling Lake Ontario supports a deep fetch
of moist, buoyant air, characterized by 8.5 C/km low-level lapse
rates/100 J/kg SBCAPE. As such, convectively driven bursts of snow
are likely to continue within the broader snow band through tonight,
with snowfall rates occasionally exceeding 2 inches/hr, as also
suggested by the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance consensus. The heaviest
snowfall rates may reduce visibility to near zero and promote
overall dangerous travel conditions.

...Squitieri.. 11/19/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7nWnDqYO1iV9neQb8z8zT6H54xg3Eb6WvgbobfqOfV3tB0KL-_FiQ-OpuowyKPDM7lAa1oxpV=
QkSi5Fq_bXjtMOSUH0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BUF...

LAT...LON   44117631 44337521 44387464 44307447 44117474 43907530
            43827573 43787599 43807626 43927638 44117631=20


=3D =3D =3D
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