Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 18 2022 19:58:12

ACUS01 KWNS 181958
SWODY1
SPC AC 181956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....20Z Update...
Overall no change is needed to the forecast.

A pair of robust lake effect bands continue downstream of Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario. Isolated lightning flashes will remain possible
within these bands throughout the remainder of the afternoon and
this evening. Some break down of the banding is possible overnight,
which would then limit the chance for lightning.

Lightning flashes are also still expected along the Lower/Middle TX
Coast early tomorrow morning.

...Mosier.. 11/18/2022

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2022/

....Discussion...
Most of the CONUS will be influenced by longwave troughing and
associated cool/cold continental trajectories. Related to a belt of
southern-stream westerlies, weak cyclogenesis is expected over the
northwest Gulf of Mexico late tonight, with increasing warm
advection and the gradual development of weak elevated buoyancy near
the Texas coast. This may support isolated thunderstorm development
late tonight/early Saturday.

Occasional lightning flashes will also continue through this
evening, particularly in vicinity of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario in
association with lake-effect snow bands. This convective potential
should somewhat diminish late tonight.

$$

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