Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1959
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 18 2022 18:00:12

ACUS11 KWNS 181800
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181759=20
NYZ000-182200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1959
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2022

Areas affected...Areas northeast of Lake Erie across the southern
portion of the Buffalo Metro

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 181759Z - 182200Z

SUMMARY...A lake-effect snow band is likely to persist through the
afternoon with snow rates 2+ inches per hour.

DISCUSSION...A persistent band of lake-effect snow, around 230 km
long, across Lake Erie has made a slight shift southward through the
morning. Upstream, a shortwave trough is rotating within the main
open wave trough with increasing DCVA and large scale ascent across
the Ohio River Valley progged to shift northward into New York by
20-21z. Ahead of this feature, southwesterly winds and long moisture
fetch continues across Lake Erie. Lake induced 0-3 km lapse rates of
9+ C/km will continue through afternoon as colder air aloft
interacts with warm lake water below. The primary snow band is
currently located across the area of greatest surface convergence,
which has been shifting southward through the morning. This band
should see an uptick in intensity over the next couple of hours with
rates 2+ inches per hour primarily across the southern Buffalo Metro
extending northward into northwestern Wyoming County. Near zero
visibility will be possible at times with dangerous travel
conditions likely.

...Thornton/Guyer.. 11/18/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!67zvUJoUQg75A2lFHCtNo5gnKnacN7uURQkXglGJ1_7FlADK6lTdk0bJO2BFZUCAamvBCAA74=
zqwJvanJYqLLcbAr-o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...

LAT...LON   42927853 42897889 42837910 42727914 42627916 42577900
            42587870 42607855 42657839 42727816 42807811 42907821
            42927853=20


=3D =3D =3D
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