Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 18 2022 17:18:12

ACUS02 KWNS 181718
SWODY2
SPC AC 181716

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2022

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Saturday through Saturday night.

....Synopsis...
Cyclonic flow aloft will persist across the CONUS on Saturday. A
pair of shortwave troughs will progress through this cyclonic flow,
with the northernmost wave moving from the Upper Midwest eastward
across the Great Lakes, OH Valley, and Northeast. The southernmost
shortwave will be less progressive, gradually moving from southern
CA/Lower CO River Valley eastward/southeastward into more of the
Southwest and northern Mexico.

Progression of the northern shortwave and an associated cold front
will reinforce the stable continental air mass in place over the
majority of central and eastern CONUS. This should preclude
thunderstorm development east of the Rockies, with the exception of
a few localized areas. One area is along the TX Coast, where showers
and a few embedded thunderstorms are possible early Saturday
morning. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible Saturday night
into Sunday morning across south FL and the FL Keys amid modest
low-level moisture return and easterly low-level flow. Lastly, a few
flashes are possible over and in the immediate lee of Lakes Erie and
Ontario, where warm lake waters and convective heavy snow bands
could result in isolated lightning flashes.

...Mosier.. 11/18/2022

$$

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