Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 18 2022 12:16:40

ACUS01 KWNS 181216
SWODY1
SPC AC 181215

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2022

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....Discussion...
Expansive upper troughing will be maintained across much of the
CONUS, with primary shortwaves dropping south from the Canadian
Prairies into the Upper Midwest and from northern CA to the Lower CO
Valley. Multiple jet streams will consolidate into a broad yet
intense upper flow regime, centered from the southern Great Plains
to the Mid-Atlantic States by 12Z Sat. Within the right entrance
region of this upper jet, low-level warm/moist advection will occur
in the northwest Gulf. This should eventually yield scant buoyancy
from elevated parcels, mainly rooted between 800-700 mb, across
portions of the TX Coastal Plain by early morning Sat. This may
support isolated thunderstorm development, embedded within a
broadening swath of showers over the western Gulf Coast.

Potential for sporadic lightning strikes within the deepest of
shallow lake-effect snow bands will persist into tonight, mainly
across the Lower Great Lakes. This threat should diminish overnight
as the influence of the digging shortwave impulse over the Upper
Midwest results in neutral to weak low-level warm advection.

...Grams.. 11/18/2022

$$

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