Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 17 2022 16:09:34

ACUS01 KWNS 171609
SWODY1
SPC AC 171607

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1007 AM CST Thu Nov 17 2022

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Sporadic lightning flashes are possible across parts of the lower
Great Lakes within lake-effect snowbands.

....Lower Great Lakes...
A negatively tilted midlevel shortwave trough currently tracking
east-southeastward across the upper Great Lakes will continue
eastward across Lower Michigan and the lower Great Lakes into the
overnight hours. Current regional VWP data shows west-northwesterly
low-level flow over the lower Great Lakes vicinity, and this flow
will back/strengthen to a west-southwesterly component in response
to the approaching shortwave trough this evening. This mean
low-level flow parallel to the long axis of Lake Erie and eventually
Lake Ontario will support intense/persistent lake-effect snowbands
through the overnight hours. Cold midlevel temperatures accompanying
the shortwave trough atop relatively warm lake waters will yield
sufficiently cold/high EL temperatures (at or above 3.5 km AGL) for
mixed-phase convective clouds and sporadic lightning flashes within
the deeper/persistent snowbands downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

...Weinman/Thompson.. 11/17/2022

$$

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