Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 17 2022 11:15:01

ACUS01 KWNS 171114
SWODY1
SPC AC 171113

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 AM CST Thu Nov 17 2022

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Sporadic lightning flashes are possible across parts of the Great
Lakes within lake effect snowbands.

....Discussion...
Several shortwave impulses are expected to progress within a broader
longwave trough becoming established over most of the CONUS. This
will reinforce a continental polar air mass and preclude
thunderstorm development across much of the CONUS. An exception will
be over the Great Lakes where relatively warm water temperatures
will support scant low-level buoyancy and potential for very
isolated thunderstorms within the deepest of shallow lake-effect
snow bands. This threat is most apparent over portions of northern
Lake Michigan and Huron during the afternoon and evening, and across
Lake Erie and Ontario this evening through tonight.

...Grams.. 11/17/2022

$$

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