Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 17 2022 08:43:31

ACUS48 KWNS 170843
SWOD48
SPC AC 170842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 AM CST Thu Nov 17 2022

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Late this coming weekend into early next week, it appears that an
initially zonal belt of westerlies across the mid-latitude Pacific
will become more amplified while developing eastward toward North
America.  By the middle to latter portion of next week, the ECENS
and GEFS mean mid-level height fields are similar depicting
large-scale mid-level ridging building within this regime across and
inland of the U.S. Pacific coast, with downstream troughing east of
the Rockies shifting toward an increasingly confluent regime across
the Atlantic Seaboard.  However, in the deterministic guidance,
short wave developments within this evolving pattern have been quite
varied.  Some output, from various model runs, has depicted
significant surface cyclogenesis initiating to the lee the southern
Rockies, which could potentially contribute to sufficient shear and
destabilization to support an increasing risk for severe storms as
the cyclone migrates east/northeast of the southern Great Plains by
Thanksgiving Day.  At this point, though, probabilities for this
occurring still appear on the lower end, but trends will continue to
be monitored.

...Kerr.. 11/17/2022

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