Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Nov 17 2022 05:01:29 ACUS02 KWNS 170501 SWODY2 SPC AC 170500 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Wed Nov 16 2022 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ....Synopsis... Seasonably cold and stable conditions will be prevalent across most of the nation at the outset of the period, with little potential for appreciable change through 12Z Saturday and beyond. Although an initially prominent mid-level high near the southeast Alaska/British Columbia coast is forecast to weaken, it appears that surrounding larger-scale ridging will generally maintain amplitude across the higher latitudes of western North America. Downstream, another significant short wave impulse emerging from the Canadian Arctic latitudes likely will reinforce larger-scale mid-level troughing across the northern Great Plains into Great Lakes vicinity, as preceding impulses accelerate east-northeastward across the northern Atlantic Coast region. Yet another perturbation may continue to split off the main branch of cyclonic flow, while digging across the Great Basin/Sierra Nevada vicinity into the Southwest. ....Lower Great Lakes vicinity... Models continue to indicate that further cooling will take place Friday across the Lakes Erie and Ontario vicinity, on 30-40 kt west-southwesterly low-level flow. This will contribute to additional steepening of low-level lapse rates, particularly over the relatively warm lake waters, enhancing evolving bands of sustained low-topped lake-effect convection. It is possible that thermodynamic profiles may become conducive to charge separation and occasional lightning flashes in the more vigorous activity. ....Lower Texas coast vicinity... Downstream of the mid-level trough digging into the Southwest, models indicate that there will be some modification of the cool/stable air boundary-layer air across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, perhaps as far north as areas offshore of the lower Texas coast. A bit farther to the west and northwest, into coastal areas, elevated moisture return, in the presence of strengthening lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, might contribute to sufficient destabilization for scattered weak thunderstorms Friday night. ...Kerr.. 11/17/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .