Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 16 2022 16:12:54

ACUS01 KWNS 161612
SWODY1
SPC AC 161611

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2022

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S. through
tonight.

....Synopsis...
Broad large-scale troughing will persist over the eastern two-thirds
of the CONUS, while an embedded cyclonic impulse lifts northeastward
across the Saint Lawrence Valley. An associated surface cyclone will
track northeastward off the New England coast, while a cold front
extends south-southwestward off the Eastern Seaboard into the
central/southern Florida Peninsula.

A plume of strong warm air advection ahead of the surface cyclone
combined with weak elevated buoyancy could support an isolated
lightning flash near eastern ME this afternoon, though this activity
looks too isolated for thunder probabilities. Farther south, an
isolated storm cannot be ruled out over southwest FL and eventually
southeastern FL along the diffuse cold front, though storms should
generally remain offshore. Over the Great Lakes, a lightning flash
or two is possible with the more intense/persistent lake effect
snowbands given a modestly deep convective boundary layer, though
coverage appears too limited for thunder probabilities here.

...Weinman/Thompson.. 11/16/2022

$$

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