Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 16 2022 10:44:56

ACUS01 KWNS 161044
SWODY1
SPC AC 161043

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2022

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S.
through tonight.

....Discussion...
A vigorous shortwave impulse embedded within a larger-scale upper
trough will progress east-northeast across the Saint Lawrence
Valley. At the surface, a cyclone off the Northeast coast will
deepen as it moves east-northeast across coastal New England. Within
a strong low-level warm advection regime ahead of this wave, scant
elevated buoyancy may support sporadic lightning flashes embedded
within a broader precipitation swath through this afternoon.

A couple lightning flashes are also possible within the deepest of
lake effect bands off southern Lake MI and east of Lake Erie, but
overall buoyancy appears very limited.

...Grams/Jewell.. 11/16/2022

$$

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