Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 16 2022 09:01:54

ACUS48 KWNS 160901
SWOD48
SPC AC 160900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2022

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

....DISCUSSION...
The medium-range guidance suggests that mid/upper flow across the
Pacific into North America will remain split, but transition from
more amplified in the northern mid- into Arctic latitudes to more
amplified in the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes during the
early to middle portion of next week.  It appears that this may
include one strengthening lead mid-latitude short wave trough
migrating inland of the Pacific coast, and perhaps coming in phase
with the subtropical stream somewhere across the Southwest into
southern Great Plains by 12Z Thanksgiving morning.  This could be
accompanied by cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies,
which possibly could contribute to increasing convective potential
as it migrates northeast/east of the plains.  However, the various
model output continues to exhibit considerable spread concerning the
short wave developments at this extended time frame.  Perhaps more
problematic concerning the risk for severe thunderstorms, initially
modest low-level Gulf moisture return and residual near surface
cool/stable air inland of coastal areas may inhibit destabilization,
at least through this period.

...Kerr.. 11/16/2022

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