Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 16 2022 06:36:52

ACUS03 KWNS 160636
SWODY3
SPC AC 160635

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2022

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the
U.S. Friday through Friday night.

....Synopsis...
Seasonably cold and stable conditions will be prevalent across most
of the nation at the outset of the period, with little potential for
appreciable change through 12Z Saturday and beyond.  Although the
initially prominent mid-level high near the southeast Alaska/British
Columbia coast may gradually weaken, models indicate that
surrounding larger-scale mid-level ridging will remain rather
amplified across the higher latitudes of western North America.

Downstream, another significant short wave impulse is forecast to
dig south-southeastward from the eastern Canadian Prairies,
reinforcing larger-scale mid-level troughing across the northern
Great Plains into Great Lakes vicinity, as preceding impulses
accelerate east-northeastward across the north Atlantic Coast
region.  Yet another perturbation may continue to split off the main
branch of flow emanating from the Arctic latitudes, while digging
from the Great Basin into the Southwest.

....Lower Great Lakes vicinity...
Models suggest that more substantive cooling may continue
overspreading the Lakes Erie and Ontario vicinity during the day
Friday, on 30-40 kt west-southwesterly low-level flow.  This will
contribute to steepening low-level lapse rates, particularly over
the relatively warm lake waters, enhancing evolving bands of
sustained low-topped lake-effect convection.  It is possible that
thermodynamic profiles may become conducive to charge separation and
occasional lightning flashes in the more vigorous activity.

...Kerr.. 11/16/2022

$$

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