Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 16 2022 04:56:22

ACUS01 KWNS 160456
SWODY1
SPC AC 160455

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2022

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk of severe thunderstorms appears low across the U.S. today
and tonight.

....Synopsis...

A shortwave impulse embedded within a larger-scale upper trough over
the central/eastern U.S. will spread northeast along the St.
Lawrence Valley vicinity today. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow
associated with this system will reside over the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast. Meanwhile at the surface, a low offshore from southern
New England will deepen as it lifts northeast along the northeastern
U.S. coast. A cold front will extend southward from the low across
the offshore waters and arcing southwestward across northern/central
FL and into the Gulf of Mexico. A warm front will lift northward
toward the New England coast through late afternoon, but the current
trajectory of the surface low should keep the front, and associated
warm sector, offshore. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from
eastern MA northeast along coastal ME in a strong warm advection
regime. This activity will be elevated on the cool side of the
surface warm front, and is not expected to pose a severe
thunderstorm threat.

...Leitman/Wendt.. 11/16/2022

$$

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