Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Nov 15 2022 19:44:31 ACUS01 KWNS 151944 SWODY1 SPC AC 151942 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2022 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States through tonight. ....20Z Update... The western portion of the general thunderstorm area has been trimmed across parts of the Southeast, based on observational and guidance trends, but otherwise no changes have been made. See the previous discussion below for more information. ...Dean.. 11/15/2022 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2022/ ....Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic/enhanced midlevel flow will persist across the eastern CONUS through the period, while several embedded impulses (evident in water vapor imagery) track northeastward through the flow. This weak large-scale ascent, coupled with a plume of warm advection and cold midlevel temperatures, will support sporadic/embedded lightning flashes within a larger precipitation field along/east of the Appalachians into the overnight hours. At the surface, a baroclinic zone is draped along the GA/Carolinas coast, with upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints just offshore. This boundary and high theta-e airmass will make little inland progression today owing to the aforementioned widespread precipitation and related cloud coverage west of the boundary. However, current indications are that a weak frontal wave will develop northeastward along the Mid-Atlantic coast, which could favor somewhat greater surface-based instability over immediate coastal areas into the overnight hours. While the enhanced midlevel flow/veering wind profile will support surface-based supercell structures over the Atlantic waters, east-northeastward storm motions should generally keep this activity away from the aforementioned coastal areas. Therefore, the risk of surface-based storms over land appears too conditional for low severe probabilities at this time. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .