Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 15 2022 16:23:50

ACUS01 KWNS 151623
SWODY1
SPC AC 151622

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2022

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

....Synopsis...
Broadly cyclonic/enhanced midlevel flow will persist across the
eastern CONUS through the period, while several embedded impulses
(evident in water vapor imagery) track northeastward through the
flow. This weak large-scale ascent, coupled with a plume of warm
advection and cold midlevel temperatures, will support
sporadic/embedded lightning flashes within a larger precipitation
field along/east of the Appalachians into the overnight hours.

At the surface, a baroclinic zone is draped along the GA/Carolinas
coast, with upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints just offshore. This
boundary and high theta-e airmass will make little inland
progression today owing to the aforementioned widespread
precipitation and related cloud coverage west of the boundary.
However, current indications are that a weak frontal wave will
develop northeastward along the Mid-Atlantic coast, which could
favor somewhat greater surface-based instability over immediate
coastal areas into the overnight hours. While the enhanced midlevel
flow/veering wind profile will support surface-based supercell
structures over the Atlantic waters, east-northeastward storm
motions should generally keep this activity away from the
aforementioned coastal areas. Therefore, the risk of surface-based
storms over land appears too conditional for low severe
probabilities at this time.

...Weinman/Hart.. 11/15/2022

$$

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