Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 15 2022 12:21:18

ACUS01 KWNS 151221
SWODY1
SPC AC 151219

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0619 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2022

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms is negligible across the
contiguous United States through tonight.

....Discussion...
Primary shortwave trough over IL/IN will shift northeast over the
Lower Great Lakes, while upstream impulses reinforce the longwave
trough centered on the Upper Midwest. A minor surface wave near the
central Gulf Coast should move inland over the Southeast before
decaying this evening. Ongoing convection across the northeast Gulf
will likely weaken through the day as activity moves east-southeast
and becomes increasingly divorced from stronger large-scale ascent
to the north. Leading stratiform ahead of the deeper thunderstorms
will limit inland destabilization this morning across the FL
Panhandle. As such, the risk for severe thunderstorms appears likely
to remain negligible over land today.

Air mass modification is anticipated offshore of the South Atlantic
Coast and spread inland across eastern NC, where current surface dew
points are mainly in the 40s to low 50s. By tonight, a sliver of
surface-based instability may develop ahead of a reinforcing cold
front. Low-topped convection may occur along this front, but deeper
development will likely be confined offshore within the predominant
southwesterly flow regime.

...Grams/Jewell.. 11/15/2022

$$

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