Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 15 2022 08:26:53

ACUS48 KWNS 150826
SWOD48
SPC AC 150825

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2022

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance indicates that initially prominent mid-level
ridging, centered near coastal southeastern Alaska and British
Columbia, may gradually weaken late this week into the coming
weekend.  However, downstream eastern North American mid-level
troughing, within a notable belt of stronger meridional flow
emanating from the Canadian Arctic latitudes, likely will be slower
to lose amplitude.  And seasonably cold conditions may remain
entrenched across much of the U.S., before gradually beginning to
modify late in the weekend into early next week, as the westerlies
trend at least a bit more zonal.  Model output becomes rather varied
concerning subsequent short wave developments emerging from the
mid-latitude Pacific during the early to middle portion of next
week.  It is possible that a southerly return flow may initiate off
the western Gulf of Mexico, but inland moisture return probably will
be initially modest and elevated above a residual near-surface
stable layer, with limited convective potential.

...Kerr.. 11/15/2022

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