Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1953
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 15 2022 02:11:15

ACUS11 KWNS 150211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150210=20
LAZ000-150415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1953
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0810 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2022

Areas affected...coastal Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 150210Z - 150415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Severe risk -- though mainly confined to the northwestern
Gulf -- may briefly approach the coast as storms shift repeatedly
inland, atop a stable surface layer.  A brief tornado or strong wind
gust can't be ruled out over coastal Parishes.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a west-to-east
warm/stationary front, residing off the Louisiana coast, extending
east from a low over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  Meanwhile,
vigorous/rotating storms are ongoing within a broken band along a
cold front advancing across the western Gulf.=20

RAP point-forecast soundings near the coast depict a fairly deep
surface-based stable layer, and evening LCH and LIX RAOBS confirm
this, while a layer of weak CAPE resides above the inversion.  As
such, severe-weather risk is expected to largely remain offshore
over the northern Gulf, where ample warm-sector surface-based CAPE
resides.

With that said, storms will remain slightly less elevated near the
immediate coast, given a progressively more shallow stable layer
with southward extent.  Given very favorable shear across the area,
owing to strongly veering/increasingly winds with height, risk for a
brief tornado or strong wind gust remains non-zero.  Still, we
remain confident that any inland risk should remain quite limited,
precluding the need for WW issuance.

...Goss/Guyer.. 11/15/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8A9F9q_wNEI7petqeZ3j04n2a8uvfFHDrjheRdQPVZ3bW4mgOdpb7VpRa4EPd_BLt7YBz16ka=
gFWZBsQktouSyMBhnY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   28879388 29549314 29759258 29959182 29439058 28879093
            28519328 28879388=20


=3D =3D =3D
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