Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Nov 14 2022 19:41:17 ACUS01 KWNS 141941 SWODY1 SPC AC 141939 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2022 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST THROUGH COASTAL LA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through tonight over coastal areas of Texas and Louisiana. ....20Z... ....Middle/Upper TX Coast and Southern LA... Recent surface analysis places a low about 30 miles south/southwest of VCT, with a warm front extending northeast just inland across the upper TX Coast into far southern LA (delineated well by the 64 deg F isodrosotherm). The strongest thunderstorms have remained offshore thus far. This trend is expected to continue throughout the remainder of the period, with the majority of storms remaining offshore and limiting the overall severe threat. That being said, a few storms may impact land areas, where a threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two will exist. ...Mosier.. 11/14/2022 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2022/ ....Synopsis... Water vapor loops depict a compact, southern-stream midlevel trough tracking eastward across eastern NM into west TX -- accompanied by strong west-southwesterly flow aloft. This feature will continue east-northeastward across north TX/southern OK this afternoon, prior to deamplifying and lifting northeastward into the Middle MS Valley this evening. In the low-levels, surface observations reveal an east-west-oriented baroclinic zone/marine front lifting slowly northward along the Lower/Middle TX coast. This boundary will generally remain confined to the immediate coastal areas of TX and LA through the period given its displacement from the aforementioned shortwave trough and widespread stratus clouds/ongoing elevated showers north of the boundary. At the same time, a weak frontal wave/coastal low currently over the Lower TX coast should drift east-northeastward along the boundary through the Middle/Upper TX coast and eventually eastward across coastal LA into the overnight hours. ....Middle/Upper TX Coast and Southern LA... Showers are ongoing off the Lower/Middle TX coast, where middle/upper 60s dewpoints reside. During the next couple hours, these showers should deepen into widely scattered thunderstorms as broad warm advection increases in the vicinity of the baroclinic zone/coastal low. As the lower/middle 60s dewpoints spread inland along the TX coast this afternoon, these storms will affect coastal areas of TX. While ongoing widespread cloud coverage will limit inland diurnal heating/destabilization, deep low-level moisture (sampled by 12Z CRP observed sounding) should allow for near-surface based inflow for this activity -- with more elevated storms further inland/north of the boundary. Strengthening warm advection beneath strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will yield 50-60 kt of effective shear, and a large clockwise-turning low-level hodograph. While this wind profile will favor surface-based supercell structures across the warm sector, much of this activity could remain confined to the Gulf waters given eastward storm motions and richer offshore low-level moisture. Nevertheless, there will be some risk for this activity to overspread the immediate coastal areas of TX this afternoon -- with an attendant risk of a tornado or two, locally damaging gusts, and sporadic large hail. This evening into the overnight hours, storms will continue eastward along the baroclinic zone (ahead of the coastal low) into coastal LA -- where strengthening warm advection and strong midlevel flow will favor a continuation of near-surface-based supercells and organized clusters. A tornado or two along with isolated hail and damaging gusts will be possible with these storms during the overnight hours. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .