Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1952 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Nov 14 2022 17:42:14 ACUS11 KWNS 141742 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141741=20 OKZ000-142045- Mesoscale Discussion 1952 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2022 Areas affected...south-central and southwestern OK Concerning...Heavy snow=20 Valid 141741Z - 142045Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow with rates near 1 inch per hour will continue across west-central OK this afternoon, and possibly spread east-southeastward across south-central OK in the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor loops show strong DCVA overspreading western OK ahead of a compact midlevel shortwave trough approaching west TX. Cold/saturated deep-layer thermodynamic profiles over west TX (sampled by the 12z AMA observed sounding) coupled with the strengthening large-scale ascent are supporting areas of heavy snow across parts of western OK. As the DCVA continues to overspread a weak ENE-WSW-oriented midlevel thermal gradient across this area, frontogenetic forcing should aid in a somewhat focused corridor of snowfall rates near 1 inch per hour given a modestly deep and saturated dendritic growth zone. However, mesoscale ascent is not particularly strong here, so confidence in prolonged heavy rates in any given area is limited at this time. Over southwest OK, surface temperatures remain above freezing, though continued showers and related moistening of the boundary-layer should yield a transition to snow during the next couple hours.=20 Farther east, regional VWP data depicts an increasing southerly low-level jet over north-central TX which will gradually impinge on a WSW-ENE-oriented low/mid-level baroclinic zone over south-central OK. As the aforementioned shortwave trough continues eastward this afternoon, strong mesoscale ascent -- aided by the larger-scale ascent -- will develop through this corridor by 20Z. This strong/focused ascent would conditionally support snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour (locally higher) for a few hours this afternoon. The main question across this corridor is the degree of surface cooling, as surface temperatures remain in the middle/upper 30s F. However, current indications are that continued wet-bulb cooling and descent of the melting layer could support additional surface cooling and a band of heavy snow. ...Weinman.. 11/14/2022 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_5_ODVECv6l7V8bhSy-qENKyKfFXMNxQ5H0K9OL0A5IZsW5O9IFIXWwYsVKBFS1x9q_wX-5wO= uS_2-p6Xsalt6dwdTQ$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN... LAT...LON 34959961 35719972 36049958 36209929 36209904 36089869 35469854 35199802 34779698 34519703 34589752 34639816 34739874 34809923 34959961=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .