Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Nov 14 2022 17:18:13 ACUS02 KWNS 141718 SWODY2 SPC AC 141716 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2022 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUESDAY MORNING... ....SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact portions of immediate central Gulf coastal areas Tuesday morning into afternoon, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ....Synopsis... Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the cyclonic flow aloft expected to cover the CONUS early Tuesday morning. The lead shortwave trough should be over mid MS Valley Tuesday morning, before then ejecting quickly northeastward through the OH Valley. Another shortwave will follow in the wake of this lead wave, moving from the central Plains across the Mid MS Valley and Lower/Middle OH Valley. Evolution of these shortwaves will encourage eastward expansion of the strong mid-level flow initially over the southern Plains and Lower/Mid MS Valley. By late Tuesday, moderate to strong mid-level flow is forecast to extend from the southern Plains eastward/northeastward across much of the eastern CONUS. At the same time, strong southerly low-level flow is expected to initially extend from the central Gulf Coast into the TN Valley. This corridor of stronger low-level flow should spread eastward/northeastward throughout the day, likely stretching from the Southeast Coast through VA by Tuesday evening. ....Central Gulf Coast... A surface low will likely near the immediate coastal areas of southern MS/AL. Location of this low will have a large influence on the downstream severe threat across southern AL into the western FL Panhandle. A more northerly location would likely result in more inland penetration of the warm sector. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the surface low early Tuesday morning, with convergence in the vicinity of the low and attendant frontal zone continuing to support storms in the warm sector throughout the morning. Low-level shear profiles suggest isolated gusts and a few tornadoes are possible with these storms. Weakening low-level convergence and displacement south of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent should lead to gradually diminishing thunderstorm coverage and intensity with eastern extent into more of GA and central FL Peninsula. ....Mid-Atlantic... Strong low-level flow mentioned in the synopsis will extend across the region by the late afternoon/early evening. This strong low-level flow may overlay modest low-level moisture from far northeast SC into the NC Outer Banks from Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Current expectation is for the more supportive thermodynamic environment to remain just offshore, limiting the severe potential over land areas. If guidance trends towards a more westerly position of the developing surface low, a small area of low severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks. ...Mosier.. 11/14/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .