Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Nov 14 2022 07:26:39 ACUS03 KWNS 140726 SWODY3 SPC AC 140725 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2022 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk of severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night. ....Synopsis... Models indicate substantial further amplification of large-scale ridging across the higher latitudes of western North America during this period, with a prominent embedded mid-level high continuing to form near coastal southeastern Alaska. Downstream of this feature, larger-scale mid-level troughing will continue to evolve across much of eastern North America, with a number of embedded short wave perturbations progressing through one notable belt of stronger flow curving from the central Canadian/U.S. border area through the Atlantic Seaboard. It appears that one of these perturbations will support significant surface cyclogenesis offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast into the Canadian Maritimes Wednesday through Wednesday night. Otherwise, cold surface ridging will likely be maintained across much of the intermountain region and Great Plains into the Gulf Coast and Southeast, with a more substantive reinforcing cold intrusion developing to the lee of the Canadian into northern U.S. Rockies. ....New England coastal vicinity... Elevated moisture return into a strengthening lower/mid tropospheric warm advection regime, perhaps aided by steepening mid-level lapse rates on the nose of a developing dry slot, may contribute to favorable thermodynamic profiles for convection capable of producing lightning. This may impact Long Island into southern New England Wednesday morning, before developing northeastward across the coastal Maine vicinity Wednesday afternoon. An unstable warm sector boundary layer (in the presence of strong vertical shear) may approach, if not overspread, the Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket into Cape Cod vicinity, providing some potential for strong thunderstorm development. At this point, however, due to a number of lingering uncertainties, severe weather probabilities across this region still appear characterized as less than 5 percent. ...Kerr.. 11/14/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .