Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Nov 14 2022 05:13:40 ACUS02 KWNS 140513 SWODY2 SPC AC 140511 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2022 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO COASTAL AREAS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND... ....SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact portions of immediate eastern Gulf coastal areas Tuesday morning into afternoon, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ....Synopsis... Models indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging will continue to build along much of the U.S. and Canadian Pacific coast through this period. While one initial embedded high elongates near the northern U.S. Pacific coast, another is forecast to begin to form across southern Alaska, to the north of a persistent broad, deep cyclone over the northern mid-latitude Pacific (roughly between 140-160W). Downstream of this amplifying regime, large-scale troughing will continue to evolve across much of eastern North America . This likely will include positively tilted, consolidated mid-level troughing (with at least a couple of embedded smaller-scale perturbations) slowly shifting across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. Another perturbation is forecast to continue digging across southern California, while yet another digs into the eastern Canadian Prairies. In association with these developments, models indicate that seasonably cold surface ridging will be maintained and reinforced across much of the intermountain region, and the Great Plains into northwestern Gulf coast. A baroclinic zone on the stalling leading edge of the cold air may redevelop back to the northwest, inland of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts by 12Z Tuesday, before strengthening and shifting back toward the coast later Tuesday through Tuesday night. The evolution of an initial surface frontal wave migrating inland along it, across the eastern Gulf coast, remains a bit unclear. However, model output still appears generally suggestive that it will remain weak or weaken over inland areas, before perhaps more substantive deepening takes place near or offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday night. ....Eastern Gulf Coast vicinity... Models continue to indicate that a weakly unstable and sufficiently sheared warm sector may be supporting organized convective development (possibly including supercells) as the initial frontal wave migrates across/northeast of the far southeastern Louisiana Gulf coast around 12Z Tuesday. Although the supporting large-scale forcing for ascent is generally forecast to be in the process of weakening within the warm sector, boundary-layer destabilization appears possible across coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle into Big Bend by midday, as the wave migrates inland. This could be accompanied by an isolated strong storm or two, posing at least some risk of producing locally damaging winds and/or a tornado. ....South Atlantic Coast states... Farther inland, low-level moisture return ahead of the inland advancing front is expected to generally occur above at least a shallow residual surface-based stable layer. Layered cloudiness probably will inhibit surface heating, and weak mid-level lapse rates may only allow thermodynamic profiles with CAPE marginally supportive of thunderstorm development across the Georgia and Carolina Piedmont and coast plain. Depending on the details of the coastal frontal low evolution, a window of opportunity for organized strong thunderstorms could evolve near the North Carolina Outer Banks vicinity Tuesday night. However, at this point, the severe weather risk still appears negligible. ...Kerr.. 11/14/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .