Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Nov 13 2022 19:35:13 ACUS01 KWNS 131935 SWODY1 SPC AC 131933 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2022 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are forecast into early/mid afternoon over central and southern Florida. ....20Z Update... ....FL Peninsula... Recent surface analysis places the front from just north of MLB southwestward to about 20-25 miles south of SRQ. Several thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of this boundary in the Space Coast vicinity and visible satellite imagery shows numerous deepen cumulus across the central peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible along and south of the front as it gradually shifts southward. Severe potential will remain limited by marginal ascent and weak low-level flow. ...Mosier.. 11/13/2022 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2022/ ....Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough currently over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity will lift northeastward across New England through the period. A related cold front extends south-southwestward off the Eastern Seaboard into the central FL Peninsula, where it becomes increasingly diffuse. Along/ahead of the southward-moving front, steep midlevel lapse rates atop upper 60s/lower 70s boundary-layer dewpoints (sampled by the 12Z TBW sounding) will continue to support isolated thunderstorms across central into southern FL this afternoon. However, weak/shallow frontal ascent should generally limit convective coverage and intensity. Farther west, a closed midlevel low evident in water vapor imagery will dig southeastward across the southwestern states. As DCVA and cold midlevel temperatures preceding this feature overspread northern NM and southwestern CO, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. However, the coverage of this activity appears too minimal for thunderstorm probabilities given marginal midlevel moisture/instability across the region. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .