Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Nov 13 2022 17:19:09 ACUS02 KWNS 131719 SWODY2 SPC AC 131717 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2022 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TX AND MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LA... ....SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Middle into Upper Texas and Louisiana coastal plain Monday afternoon through Monday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ....Middle/Upper TX Coast into Southern LA... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the southern High Plains before continuing eastward across the southern Plains during the day and then more northeastward into the Mid MS Valley late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will accompany this wave, spreading across the southern Plains early Monday and across much of the lower/middle MS Valley by Monday night. Low-level moisture will attempt to return northward across TX ahead of this shortwave, but moisture scouring resulting from a previous frontal intrusion and largely continental trajectories will likely keep 60s dewpoints confined to the western and central Gulf Coasts. A surface low is expected to develop within the frontal zone in the vicinity of the Middle TX coast by Monday afternoon. This low should then move eastward over the immediate coastal areas of the Upper TX Coast and southern LA. The strongest large-scale forcing for ascent will be displaced well north of the Gulf Coast but low-level convergence near the low and warm front should provide enough lift for storm development. The kinematic environment supports supercells, with strong low-level flow beneath moderate to strong southwesterly flow aloft. Given this kinematic support, the overall severe threat will be largely tied to thermodynamics. As such, location of the surface low and warm front will have a large influence on how far inland the warm sector penetrates and where the greater severe risks exist. Currently, the highest potential is anticipated along the near coastal areas of the Upper TX Coast and southern LA. Isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two may occur in this areas. A low-probability threat for hail also exists just north of the warm front where a few stronger elevated storms are possible. ...Mosier.. 11/13/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .