Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 13 2022 16:28:36

ACUS01 KWNS 131628
SWODY1
SPC AC 131626

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2022

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are forecast into early/mid afternoon over
central and southern Florida.

....Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level trough currently over the Lower Great Lakes
vicinity will lift northeastward across New England through the
period. A related cold front extends south-southwestward off the
Eastern Seaboard into the central FL Peninsula, where it becomes
increasingly diffuse. Along/ahead of the southward-moving front,
steep midlevel lapse rates atop upper 60s/lower 70s boundary-layer
dewpoints (sampled by the 12Z TBW sounding) will continue to support
isolated thunderstorms across central into southern FL this
afternoon. However, weak/shallow frontal ascent should generally
limit convective coverage and intensity.

Farther west, a closed midlevel low evident in water vapor imagery
will dig southeastward across the southwestern states. As DCVA and
cold midlevel temperatures preceding this feature overspread
northern NM and southwestern CO, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out. However, the coverage of this activity appears too
minimal for thunderstorm probabilities given marginal midlevel
moisture/instability across the region.

...Weinman/Thompson.. 11/13/2022

$$

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