Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Nov 13 2022 07:16:35 ACUS03 KWNS 130716 SWODY3 SPC AC 130715 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2022 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ....SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact portions of immediate eastern Gulf coastal areas Tuesday morning into afternoon, accompanied by some risk for severe weather. ....Synopsis... Models indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging will become increasingly prominent along much of the North American Pacific coast through this period. One initial embedded high is forecast to generally maintain strength near the Pacific Northwest coast, while another begins to form near the southern Alaskan coast, to the north of a persistent broad, deep mid-level low over the northern mid-latitude Pacific (between 140-160W). Downstream of this amplified regime, positively tilted large-scale troughing will continue to evolve. It now appears that this will include consolidated mid-level troughing slowly shifting across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region, another perturbation digging into the Southwest, and yet another digging into the Canadian Prairies. In response to these developments, cold surface ridging likely will be maintained and reinforced across much of the Intermountain West and the Great Plains into northwestern Gulf coast. A baroclinic zone on the leading edge of the cold air may strengthen across the northeastern Gulf coast through northern Mid Atlantic and southern New England coasts. The evolution of an initial surface wave migrating inland along it, across the Gulf coast, remains a bit unclear, but generally still appears likely to remain weak. ....Southeast... Models suggest that a weakly unstable boundary layer, within the warm sector of the initial frontal wave migrating inland across the coast, may overspread far southeastern portions of Louisiana early in the period, and perhaps immediate coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle around midday Tuesday. This may occur coincident with sufficient lingering shear for organized convection, including supercells, which could pose a risk for producing locally damaging wind gusts and/or perhaps a tornado. Otherwise, farther inland, low-level moisture return seems likely to occur above a stable surface-based layer, with weak elevated instability generally precluding a risk for vigorous thunderstorm development. ...Kerr.. 11/13/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .