Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Nov 13 2022 05:01:34 ACUS02 KWNS 130501 SWODY2 SPC AC 130500 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ....SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the middle into upper Texas and Louisiana coastal plain Monday afternoon through Monday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ....Synopsis... It still appears that blocking will become more prominent within the large-scale flow centered near the North American coast during this period. This will include an initial building mid-level high, within larger-scale ridging along the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast. The ridge is forecast to become flanked by a large, deep mid-level low over the upstream northern mid-latitude Pacific (between 140-160W), and consolidating large-scale downstream troughing across the Rockies through Mississippi Valley vicinity. A vigorous short wave impulse emerging from the Southwest likely will become absorbed within the latter regime, and accelerate from the southern Rockies into the lower Ohio Valley by daybreak Tuesday. Beneath this regime, models indicate that cold surface ridging will generally be maintained across much of the nation. However, a short-lived return flow of Gulf moisture, above the cold air, may contribute to sufficient elevated destabilization to support a risk for thunderstorms across parts of the southern Great Plains and mid/upper Texas coast vicinity, into the central Gulf Coast states Monday through Monday night. ....Southeast Texas/Southern Louisiana... In response to the short wave accelerating east-northeastward from the southern Rockies, a surface frontal zone is forecast to return northward across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent Texas coastal areas. Although the stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent may tend to pass to the north of the region, guidance still indicates that a weak frontal wave may initiate near mid/upper Texas coastal areas by Monday afternoon. It is possible that a moistening warm sector with boundary-layer dew points approaching 70F may advect into immediate mid to upper Texas coastal areas, accompanied by the development of moderate CAPE (in excess of 1000 J/kg). Coinciding with strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear as a strong westerly mid/upper jet overspreads the southern Great Plains, the environment may become conducive to organized severe convective development, including supercells. The window of opportunity for this appears roughly in the 20-00Z time frame, before the frontal wave shifts away from the Texas coast. Inland of the immediate middle into upper coastal areas, a residual near-surface stable layer may limit severe weather potential to the risk for large hail. However, close to the coast, an isolated tornado and/or damaging winds appear possible, and the warm sector of the frontal wave may spread into far southeastern Louisiana parishes with a similar severe weather risk late Monday night. ...Kerr.. 11/13/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .