Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 12 2022 19:44:30

ACUS01 KWNS 121944
SWODY1
SPC AC 121943

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2022

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

....20Z Update...
No changes needed to the previous forecast. See discussion below for
more details.

...Mosier.. 11/12/2022

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2022/

....Synopsis...
An amplified mid/upper-level trough currently centered over the
Upper/Middle MS Valley will gradually deamplify as it tracks
east-northeastward into the Lower Great Lakes vicinity through the
period. Within the broad downstream cyclonic flow aloft, water vapor
imagery reveals an embedded impulse tracking northeastward across
New England. As the associated lobe of ascent overspreads
weak/elevated instability over eastern ME (per GYX observed 12Z
sounding), isolated lightning flashes will be possible into early
afternoon.

In the low-levels, a cold front extends southwestward along the
Appalachians into the Central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front,
isolated thunderstorms are possible over southeast LA -- where lower
60s dewpoints reside beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. However
much of this activity may remain confined to the Gulf waters.
Farther east, weakly confluent low-level flow coupled with diurnal
heating of rich low-level moisture should support a few
thunderstorms across the southern FL Peninsula this afternoon. These
storms should generally be focused along the east coast -- where a
very weak sea breeze should favor stronger convergence/mesoscale
ascent. Poor midlevel lapse rates and weak deep-layer flow/shear
(evident in the MFL 12Z observed sounding) should limit convective
intensity/organization.

$$

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