Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 12 2022 17:17:01

ACUS02 KWNS 121716
SWODY2
SPC AC 121715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2022

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Sunday through Sunday night.

....Synopsis...
Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the broadly
cyclonic flow aloft across CONUS on Sunday. The lead shortwave is
expected to begin the period over the Upper OH Valley, before then
ejecting northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and Northeast. A
pair of phased shortwaves are expected farther west. The northern
shortwave will extend from southern Saskatchewan through central MT
early Sunday, while the southern shortwave extends from the western
Great Basin through central CA. Expectation is for the northern wave
to move eastward throughout the day, moving through eastern MT and
into the northern Plains. The southern wave is expected to move more
southeastward, progressing across the Four Corners/Southwest into
the southern High Plains.

Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany the southern shortwave,
but scant low to mid-level moisture and generally cold profiles
should limit buoyancy. As a result, despite strong forcing for
ascent, thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain less than 10%.

Surface pressure will lower across the Plains ahead of this wave as
well, with increasing low-level southerly flow across the southern
Plains. Even so, low-level moisture return will be minimal due to
the previous frontal intrusion. Low-level moisture will be in place
over the FL Peninsula ahead of a weakening cold front. However,
convergence along the front will be weak and low/mid-level
temperatures will remain warm, limiting thunderstorm potential.

...Mosier.. 11/12/2022

$$

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