Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1951
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 12 2022 14:10:59

ACUS11 KWNS 121410
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121410=20
OHZ000-INZ000-121645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1951
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0810 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2022

Areas affected...central into northeast IN...west-central and
northwest OH

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 121410Z - 121645Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates around 1 inch/hour expected for a 1-2
hour duration through the late morning.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows an expanding precipitation shield
over the OH Valley and southern Great Lakes as of 9am EST.  The ASOS
at Shelbyville, IN (KGEZ) recently observed heavy snow at 846am and
1/4 mi visibility.  This precipitation is occurring immediately
downstream of an east-northeastward migrating mid-level shortwave
trough located over the lower OH Valley.  A zone of appreciable
700-600 mb frontogenesis has become more diffuse than earlier this
morning over south-central IL, but large-scale ascent will maximize
over the OH Valley/southern Great Lakes through midday.  The 12 UTC
Detroit raob showed a temperature profile that will support snow
once the column saturates---this will be applicable for northwest OH
in the 9-10am period.  Smaller-scale banding is evident on radar
this morning over central IN and this will lead to episodic bursts
of heavy snowfall rates around 1 inch/hour.  The moderate to heavy
snowfall rates will gradually shift from west to east across IN and
eventually into OH by late morning.

...Smith.. 11/12/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7f3_fe3UR_xMD5VLeKGkrNXTmvY6aWC124fzz0QMT3R2-PInccrstDX0YDi61lNBtSC5EPHiS=
W1C896shOqhgGdzj2Y$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   39698652 40768627 41448474 41228394 40768376 40368402
            39458567 39698652=20


=3D =3D =3D
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