Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 12 2022 12:51:00

ACUS01 KWNS 121250
SWODY1
SPC AC 121249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2022

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

....Synopsis/Discussion...
A somewhat complex, progressive. amplified pattern will characterize
the period in mid/upper levels.  A small cyclone will persist near
James Bay, with mean trough extending south-southwestward to
southward over the east-central CONUS.  In the associated cyclonic
flow, a strong shortwave trough will pivot from the lower/middle
Missouri Valley region over the Ohio Valley, reaching the central
Appalachians and western NY by the end of the period.

Upstream, a strong northern-stream shortwave trough -- now evident
in moisture-channel imagery from northern AB to southeastern BC --
will move southeastward to northern MT through 12Z tomorrow.  As
that occurs, a closed 500-mb cyclone -- initially centered near the
OR coastline -- will move southeastward across southern OR and
northeastern CA to central NV.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front across eastern NY,
to near PHL, southwestward over the western Carolinas, northern GA,
southern AL, the mouth of the Mississippi River, across the
northwestern Gulf.  By 00Z, the front should reach southeastern New
England, northern VA, the western Carolinas, the central FL
Panhandle, and the central Gulf.  The front should be offshore all
but peninsular FL and perhaps the NC Outer Banks/sounds by 12Z.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible behind the front, in the
next few hours, over southern LA and eastern New England, as well as
over parts of central/southern FL, where weak midlevel lapse rates
make the potential isolated and conditional.

...Edwards/Smith.. 11/12/2022

$$

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