Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 12 2022 08:04:37

FOUS30 KWBC 120804
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 AM EST Sat Nov 12 2022

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 12 2022 - 12Z Sun Nov 13 2022

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is likely to be ongoing by the
start of the day 1 period as precipitation rides along a potent
cold front and nearby deepening surface low as it swings into
northern Maine. Recent rainfall from the previous day may prime
the soils as upwards of 1" per hour rates pass over the area,
while also moving eastward at a decent clip. Very anomalous PWATs
above 1.5" and +4 standard deviations above the climatological
mean (per the 00z GEFS) will provide an environment more than
capable of producing efficient rainfall rates within the line of
showers. The limiting factor from a flash flood perspective is the
speed at which the line of showers will be moving, exiting New
Hampshire by 16z and Maine by 19z. Thus, the Marginal Risk was
maintained and only expanded a bit southward in order to capture
current radar and HIRES CAM guidance trends around the very
beginning of the forecast period.

Snell



Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 13 2022 - 12Z Mon Nov 14 2022

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Snell

Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!544sXBd2ZDLj1XPvrs19kAnnRDnQoBUiTnpTE3iqcffH=
mF5cGerQDgWKEMT8LFCDsZEuR6Pg3m5Tj2Ptr3swl-W47lQ$=20=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!544sXBd2ZDLj1XPvrs19kAnnRDnQoBUiTnpTE3iqcffH=
mF5cGerQDgWKEMT8LFCDsZEuR6Pg3m5Tj2Ptr3swNsOpY88$=20=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!544sXBd2ZDLj1XPvrs19kAnnRDnQoBUiTnpTE3iqcffH=
mF5cGerQDgWKEMT8LFCDsZEuR6Pg3m5Tj2Ptr3swjJFKJgA$=20=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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