Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 12 2022 00:32:25

ACUS01 KWNS 120032
SWODY1
SPC AC 120030

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2022

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART
OF SOUTHERN TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail remains possible over far southern Texas this
evening. Isolated severe gusts or a brief/weak tornado may yet occur
over the Mid Atlantic.

....South TX...
Shallow convection is attempting to form south of the cold front,
mainly beneath a capping inversion which is stronger with southward
extent. As the cold front surges south across the remainder of the
area, an uptick in storm strength may occur, and isolated severe
hail appears most likely, along or just north of the cold front.

....Mid Atlantic...
0-1 km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 and dewpoints near 70 F remain from
eastern NC and VA, ahead of an arcing line of shallow convection
ahead of the midlevel vort max. The parent wave aloft is forecast to
weaken as it moves northeast through tonight, but isolated severe
gusts or a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out given sufficient
several hundred J/kg MLCAPE and minimal MLCIN across the warm
sector. However, loss of heating as well as warm temperatures aloft
are mitigating the overall threat.

...Jewell.. 11/12/2022

$$

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