Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 12 2022 00:25:30

AWUS01 KWNH 120025
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-120409-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1123
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
724 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

Areas affected...Portions of the Upper Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120024Z - 120409Z

SUMMARY...Persistent moderate to heavy rainfall may lead to some
run-off problems...including a threat for some urban flooding...
over the next several hours as Post Tropical Cyclone Nicole
continues to move northward.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery showed an expansive shield
of moderate to heavy rain extending from West Virginia and
portions of eastern Ohio northeastward across much of western
Pennsylvania and into far southwest New York. These rains will
continue over the next several hours as robust moisture transport
couples with broad warm air advection and an axis of strengthening
frontogenetical forcing to sustain the threat.

Instability remained modest as of 12/00Z in place in an elevated
fashion over West Virginia and far eastern Ohio with MUCAPE values
locally as high as 250 j/kg. This general corridor of instability
also corresponds to the axis of strongest 925/850 mb
frontogenesis. This stronger frontogenetical forcing signal should
remain quasi-stationary over the next few hours.  The overlapping
areas of elevated instability and forcing will drive the corridor
of heaviest rainfall through the evening hours.

Expecting the rainfall rates to be on the order of 0.50 inch per
hour...although spotty 1+ inch per hour rates are not out of the
question. Into the early evening hours, MRMS has been tending to
show only a few smaller areas of rainfall exceeding 1.5 inches per
3 hours.  However, the 11/18Z HREF has been suggesting the
probability of 1 inch per hour rainfall rates begins increasing
after 03Z across portions of western Pennsylvania.  Additional
rainfall amounts possibly reaching as much as 2 or 3 inches due to
the persistence of some of these heavier rain rates.

Some runoff problems will be possible as these rains continue, and
this will include an urban flooding threat.

Bann

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5heTVS-g-481O7Qa2zKl0ZA21kLDNuINwKuHz1HfHZX9Ciaw2Zi7YhNDLrBpmY-wc9yr=
f9CBKfgw65Irqpiwb8ZrTpI$   for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   43047755 42707740 42067791 41287869 40237898=20
            39167942 38228007 38348121 39068109 39888064=20
            41618002 42257950 42727876=20

=3D =3D =3D
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