Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1949
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 11 2022 23:06:25

ACUS11 KWNS 112306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112305=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-120030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1949
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0505 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2022

Areas affected...Southeastern Virginia and parts of northeastern
North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 112305Z - 120030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A conditional threat for a brief tornado or two will exist
with a line of forced convection moving into southeast Virginia.

DISCUSSION...A shallow line of forced convection continues slowly
eastward from western parts of Virginia into central North Carolina.
This line has not produced any lightning thus far. Dewpoints ahead
of this line in southeastern Virginia into adjacent parts of
northeast North Carolina remain in the low 70s F. Though diurnal
cooling will increase with time, the process should be slow given
the moist airmass. With some lingering buoyancy and modest
strengthening of 850 mb wind expected, there is a conditional,
low-end threat for a brief tornado or two along the line this
evening. The threat will hinge on whether dewpoints and temperatures
will remain in the low 70s this evening. Uncertainty exists in this
scenario as some observing sites dewpoints have fallen a degree or
two over the last hour as drier mid-level air has worked its way in.

...Wendt/Grams.. 11/11/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6foKO1g4C1RMIOC3_8gl6abaejkzbtbyw6JFnNuA4bKJmfJWIgrvz8PRId3LE9KxUSCOJxPxU=
Gx18ygUl2WHYAS-v0o$   for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   36537888 37647876 38287829 38347799 38317731 37957671
            37277653 36727664 36327680 35957751 36137824 36537888=20


=3D =3D =3D
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