Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1948
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 11 2022 22:53:27

ACUS11 KWNS 112253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112252=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-120115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1948
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2022

Areas affected...Southeast Texas...Far Western Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 112252Z - 120115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat is expected across parts of
southeast Texas into far western Louisiana over the next few hours.
The threat should be too brief for weather watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level
trough in west Texas, with southwesterly mid-level flow located from
east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing within this diffluent flow, along and to
the west of an axis of instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the
500 to 1000 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Lake
Charles, Louisiana has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with weak
directional shear in the lowest 2 km. This environment could support
an isolated wind-damage threat for a few more hours. However, the
threat should be too brief for weather watch issuance.

...Broyles/Grams.. 11/11/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8gWUk4x7nLK2unfEIfJtllKro8NEc5Wp6gmum8SZhbsCeoQOEdLyxnuYp3gPGP1EtSz1hooYV=
AEZunuXxeVp2Rycqvo$   for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   29269602 29109587 28979553 29089507 29479434 30249341
            30829294 31209285 31529308 31669359 31639410 31449462
            30889524 30129580 29629603 29269602=20


=3D =3D =3D
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