Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1946
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 11 2022 20:48:57

ACUS11 KWNS 112048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112048=20
TXZ000-112215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1946
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2022

Areas affected...TX Hill Country

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 570...

Valid 112048Z - 112215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 570
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for large hail and/or strong gusts continues across
the southern portion of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 570.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places the cold front from just
south of UTS southwestward to about 35 miles south of SAT.
Development ahead of the front has been minimal thus far but recent
visible satellite and radar imagery have shown some deeper updrafts
in the Wilson/Gonzales county vicinity. This development will likely
be undercut by the front soon, but the environment remains favorable
for large hail if updrafts can mature, as sampled well by the 18Z
CRP sounding. The lack of stronger forcing for ascent and
low/mid-level warm layer noted on the 18Z sounding have likely
mitigated stronger storms thus far. Expectation is for attempts at
mature updrafts to continue along and ahead of the front for the
next few hours and for the environment to remain supportive of large
hail and/or strong gusts.

...Mosier.. 11/11/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!63HqV2KvjbrQnnT0cncf2lpUdhtVSEbA1ysnR9PvItkMF6XJiSCdGYpHQFjPYR2hBhT9PGaZ6=
UbUIXhsDCAvpXw1074$   for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28810009 29149945 29519844 30049698 29379673 29039713
            28589834 28229978 28810009=20


=3D =3D =3D
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