Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Nov 11 2022 20:00:55 ACUS01 KWNS 112000 SWODY1 SPC AC 111959 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF VA/MD/NC AND CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes remain possible through late afternoon mainly over eastern Virginia. Large hail will be the main severe-weather threat in south Texas this afternoon/evening. ....20Z Update... Regarding the Mid-Atlantic related to the remnants of Nicole, tornado potential should be focused over the next couple of hours (through late afternoon) across east/southeast Virginia and possibly nearby southern Maryland. For central/south Texas, surface-based thunderstorms are still expected to develop/intensify through late afternoon near the southeastward-moving front. Elevated hail potential has largely diminished appreciably behind the front. ...Guyer.. 11/11/2022 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022/ ....NC/VA through mid-late afternoon... The remnants of Nicole will accelerate northeastward and weaken by tonight over the Mid-Atlantic. In the interim, there will still be the potential for broken convective bands from NC into VA through the afternoon as some low-level destabilization occurs in cloud breaks. Curved low-level hodographs with effective SRH at or above 200 m2/s2 will be maintained northeast of the remnant circulation center through the afternoon, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible with supercells in the convective bands. ....Central/south TX through this evening... Slightly elevated strong-severe storms are ongoing across central TX on the immediate cool side of a surface cold front. This front will continue to move southeastward to the coastal plain by this evening, as an associated midlevel trough progresses eastward over the southern Plains. The threat for surface-based storms will increase some this afternoon from roughly San Antonio to Corpus Christi, just ahead of the front in a zone of ascent with a lead mid-upper speed max over the Big Bend (as evidenced by the warm sector convection over Real County as of 16z). Long/relatively straight hodographs, midlevel lapse rates greater than 7 C/km, and MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg will support the potential for a few supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 inch diameter or larger) and damaging gusts from early afternoon until the storms move off the middle TX coast by late evening. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .