Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1945
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 11 2022 19:31:25

ACUS11 KWNS 111931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111930=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-112130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1945
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2022

Areas affected...far northeast NC...eastern VA...and southern MD

Concerning...Tornado Watch 569...

Valid 111930Z - 112130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 569 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat continues across Tornado Watch 569, and
a local extension in time/space is warranted across parts of eastern
VA into southern MD.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from AKQ shows a broken band of
supercells tracking north-northeastward from far northeast NC into
southeastern VA this afternoon. Backed surface winds beneath
strong/deep southerly flow per regional VWP data is supporting
favorable low-level shear/streamwise vorticity amid lower 70s
dewpoints. Over the next few hours, this favorable airmass will
continue expanding northward across eastern VA into southern MD --
where large looping low-level hodographs will support a continued
supercell tornado risk until around 22/23Z. Therefore, a local
spatial/temporal extension of the watch is warranted for these
areas.

...Weinman/Thompson.. 11/11/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5aOcXL9U1dpbTbk197UZGPEPYDGHHCA74Rf3f5gO8XQ3QYXUszbMt_PaMPR9p_oWaviotVYHf=
AM4pbhZ2NKkkts15cU$   for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...

LAT...LON   36257715 36417783 36997812 37717815 38227805 38707757
            38817712 38727658 38517639 38117612 36737614 36297660
            36257715=20


=3D =3D =3D
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