Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 11 2022 17:22:54

ACUS02 KWNS 111722
SWODY2
SPC AC 111721

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Saturday through Saturday
night.

....Synopsis/Discussion...
A semi-amplified/progressive upper-flow pattern will exist over the
CONUS on Saturday. A prominent upper trough will shift
east-northeastward over the Midwest/Great Lakes and Ontario.
Isolated thunderstorm potential, associated with a minimally
unstable environment, may linger across coastal New England Saturday
morning prior to the cold front clearing the Eastern Seaboard.

A few thunderstorms could occur along the middle Gulf Coast near the
advancing front Saturday morning, although the greater probability
and coverage of thunderstorms will be over the western/northern Gulf
of Mexico. Across Florida, the glancing cyclonic influence of the
Midwest upper trough, along with some increase in low-level
convergence and a residually moist air mass across the
central/southern Peninsula, will contribute to the potential for
widely scattered thunderstorms on Saturday.

A closed mid-level low with related -25C to -30C 500mb cold core
will spread southeastward from western Oregon toward the Great Basin
through Saturday night. Steepening lapse rates could influence some
convective precipitation into parts of the Great Basin/Nevada,
although marginal thermodynamic characteristics and a limited
potential for charge separation should keep the potential for
thunderstorms low.

...Guyer.. 11/11/2022

$$

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