Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1944
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 11 2022 17:07:23

ACUS11 KWNS 111707
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111706=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-111900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1944
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022

Areas affected...Northeast NC into southeast VA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 569...

Valid 111706Z - 111900Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 569 continues.

SUMMARY...The supercell tornado threat continues across Tornado
Watch 569, with a locally higher risk across parts of northeast NC
into southeast VA during the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows pockets of cloud
clearing/thinning amid rich boundary layer moisture (lower/middle
70s dewpoints) across parts of northeast NC into southeast VA. Here,
surface winds are favorably backed beneath deep/strong southerly
winds per RAX/AKQ VWPs. This wind profile is supporting modest
low-level hodograph curvature/streamwise vorticity, characterized by
150-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per aforementioned VWPs.

RAX radar data depicts a broken band of organizing supercell
structures spreading northward into this increasingly favorable
environment, and some modest intensification of this activity will
be possible through the afternoon given increasing boundary-layer
theta-e and strengthening low-level shear. Convection has generally
been tracking northward at around 30 mph, though any
discrete/semi-discrete cells that track more north-northeastward
should pose the greatest tornado threat.

...Weinman.. 11/11/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5BCzeeLlaH3vMZHz9JW45_HeG3VvkdEHTWr9Fgao73j490lZIWanATsAFz4GWgP5WXHzhSyTA=
RjdqQYdA6CT8D1GyGg$   for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON   36807824 37037817 37277800 37527770 37667744 37707702
            37527655 37287619 36967596 36427576 36117576 35827625
            35767675 35887733 36037775 36207804 36527823 36807824=20


=3D =3D =3D
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